The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced recently that they will adjust the existing disclosure mechanism for northbound trading under the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect programs. Effective August 19, 2024, the exchanges will no longer provide real-time data on northbound trading volumes, including buy and sell transactions, and total trading amounts.

Northbound trading, often viewed as a bellwether for market sentiment, has been closely watched by investors for its potential to signal shifts in international investor confidence in the A-share market. The exchanges’ decision to revise the disclosure mechanism aims to address concerns over market manipulation and short-term volatility.

Adjusted Disclosure Mechanism for Northbound Trading

Shanghai Stock Connect

  • Daily summaries of total trading volume, number of trades, ETF trading totals, and the top ten most actively traded securities along with their aggregate trading volumes will be published after the close of each trading day.
  • Monthly and annual summaries will also be released.
  • Total holdings of northbound investors in individual securities as of the end of each quarter will be disclosed on the fifth trading day of the subsequent quarter.

Shenzhen Stock Connect

  • Daily summaries of total trading volume, number of trades, ETF trading totals, and the top ten most actively traded securities along with their aggregate trading volumes will be published after the close of each trading day.
  • Monthly and annual summaries will also be released.
  • Total holdings of northbound investors in individual securities as of the end of each quarter will be disclosed on the fifth trading day of the subsequent quarter.

Reasons for Adjusting the Disclosure Mechanism

The adjustment is designed to mitigate potential market manipulation and reduce short-term volatility, which could impact investor decision-making. Real-time data on northbound trading had been used by quantitative funds and individual investors alike, potentially leading to overreactions and rapid price movements.

From the perspective of retail investors, real-time data on northbound fund flows may have been misused as a basis for short-term trading decisions, potentially exacerbating market volatility.

Impact of the New Disclosure Mechanism

The new rules are expected to dampen short-term market fluctuations and emotional reactions, encouraging more rational investment decisions. With the lack of real-time data, the difficulty of market manipulation may increase, as participants will not have immediate access to large-scale fund movements.

As investors adapt to the new disclosure mechanism, they may shift their focus towards long-term trends and fundamental analysis, reducing reliance on short-term data. Some may seek alternative sources of timely information to inform their investment strategies.

Internationally, the cessation of real-time northbound trading data may decrease the immediacy of foreign investors’ attention to the Chinese market, potentially affecting their interest and engagement.